Diperbarui: Feb 19
Betting markets are sets of outcomes on which you can place a bet on by choosing the most likely among them. For instance, when a match is playing, there are three main outcomes; Home win, Away win or draw. This set of outcomes together form the betting market called 1X2.
This is the most common betting market used by gamblers despite existing dozens, perhaps hundreds of more profitable betting markets. This is caused by lack of knowledge and that is why we will elaborate most or all of the betting markets available on Sportpesa.
For the purpose of explaining these betting tips, we shall use an example of a match played by Loma - Lazio on 29th September 2018 starting at 1600 hrs. Roma sis at home and will therefore be referred in this article as the Home Team while Lazio will be referred to as the Away Team.
1. 1X2 MARKET - 3 WAY FULL TIME BETTING TIPS
This as we said above is the most popular betting market for unseasoned gamers. This market predicts the three main outcomes of a match which are:
HOME WIN – This outcome means the team which is playing at home winning by any number of goals. In this example in the image, the odds for Roma are 2.60 same as Lazio. This means the probability of Roma Winning is the reciprocal of 2.6 which is 0.38. This is a pretty low probability for a team playing at home. The higher the odds, the lower the probability of winning that outcome if you placed a bet on it. Mostly, the home team is usually the one with lower odds since teams generally seem to perform better at home.
DRAW – This outcome means a match ending with both teams having scored the same number of goals or both having not scored at all. This odd is usually higher than at least one of the team’s odds. This is because the DRAW outcome is the least common in any match.
AWAY WIN – This is an outcome represented by the away team scoring more goals than the HOME TEAM. This is usually the rarest of the three outcomes. It is however very profitable since the odds seem to be really large especially when the visiting team is weaker. But since we all know a weaker team is usually toothless when visiting a stronger team, the AWAY WIN outcome can be a loss making one.
These represent the odds of a match ending at half time or full time with more or less than a specified number of goals scored. Below are some of the choices you can make in this market:
OVER 0.5 – Betting on this market means you predict at least one goal to be scored in the match. The odd are usually very small. In our example in the image above, the odds are 1.02 which is really very small. This is because the outcome is highly likely
UNDER 0.5 - Betting on this market means you predict that no goal will be scored in this match. In contrast to the OVER 0.5 market, this market is highly profitable. I our example, the odds are 11.75 on Sportpesa. This is because the outcome highly unlikely, most of the time. You only win this bet if the outcome is (0 – 0).
OVER 1.5 - Betting on this market means you predict at least two goals to be scored in the match. The odds for this market are usually small as well. In our example, the odds are 1.16 for the match. This is because for this match, the teams are highly likely to score more than one goal in total.
UNDER 1.5 - Betting on this market means you a total goal count of 1 or 0. This means you can only win if the match outcomes are (1 – 0), (0 - 0) or (0 – 1).
OVER 2.5 - Betting on this market means you predict at least three goals to be scored in the match. This is my favorite threshold to bet on since the odds are usually reasonably high for normal matches. In our example of Roma and Lazio match, the outcome has odds of 1.55 which is pretty ok.
UNDER 2.5 - Betting on this market means you predict that no more than 2 goals will be scored in the match. Our example on Sportpesa for Roma and Lazio lists odds of 2.35 for this market. Note the difference of odds between Over 2.5 and Under 2.5. It means this match is seen to be a highs scoring match. The 2.5 threshold is what really gives the picture of what betting houses think about the number of goals to be scored in a match.
OVER 3.5 - Betting on this market means you predict that at least 4 goals will be scored in a match. In our example the odds for this market are 2.35 which is reasonable.
Betting on this market means you predict no more than 3 goals to be scored. The odds for this market in our example are 1.55. This is a market that I consider profitable most of the time.
OVER 4.5 - Betting on this market means you predict at least 5 goals to be scored in the match. In our example the odds are 4.10 for this market pointing to the fact that this is a highly unlikely match outcome.
UNDER 4.5 - Betting on this market means you predict no more than 4 goals to be scored in total. The odds in our example are 1.22 meaning this is an easy outcome but quite unprofitable.
OVER 5.5 - Betting on this market means you predict at least 6 goals to be scored in the match. In our example the odds are 7.25 for this market pointing to the fact that this is a highly unlikely match outcome but highly profitable
UNDER 5.5 - Betting on this market means you predict no more than 5 goals to be scored in total. The odds in our example are 1.08 meaning this is an easy outcome but grossly unprofitable.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE BETTING TIPS
This market gives you a chance to predict if a match will end with both teams having scored at least one goal eac or not. In our example, the odds for both teams scoring (also known as GOAL-GOAL or GG) are 1.45 and the odds of at least one team not scoring a single goal are 2.50. The difference in odds suggest that the betting house thinks that these two teams are both very likely to score at least one match each in this match.
The benefit of this market is that there are only two outcomes involved. The teams either both score or don’t. The probability of winning in this market is therefore relatively higher than for the 3-way market for instance which has 3 possible outcomes for every match.
DOUBLE CHANCE BETTING TIPS
The DOUBLE CHANCE market is a child of the 3-way betting market. To understand this betting market, consider the possible outcomes for the two teams in our example.
The 3 main outcomes are:
a. ROMA WINS (1)
b. ROMA AND LAZIO TO DRAW (X)
c. LAZIO WINS (2)
Now consider combining two probabilities into one so that the chances increase. For instance you can bet on the outcome that EITHER Roma OR Lazio win the match. In other words we can say EITHER 1 OR 2 win. This event can therefore denote as 12. This is now a double chance and you win if either of the teams wins regardless of the number of goals scored. You therefore only lose if the teams draw.
Other possible outcomes are therefore 1X (Home win or Draw) and X2(Draw or Away win).
In our example above, the odds are 1.45, 1.45 and 1.3 for 1X, X2 and 12 respectively. The odds for 12 are the least since of the three outcomes, this is the most likely. For risk averse gamblers, this is very good market.
CORRECT SCORE BETTING TIPS
This market requires that you predict the exact number of goals that will be scored in match. It is a highly risky market to bet on but extremely profitable given the odds usually associated with it. Below is a screenshot of the market for the match in our example. Notice how the odds can be as high as 100 for some correct score predictions.
DRAW NO BET
Draw no bet market means you bet on the win of one team in a match and you only lose if the other team other than the one you bet on wins. You don’t lose when a draw occurs. Instead you are refunded.
It is a good market especially if you feel a draw is threatening your bet. In our example, the odds are 1.90 for Roma winning and 1.95 for Lazio winning. There are no odds for a draw since if it happens you will get a refund. However, it is good to note the lesser odds as compared to the odds of the two teams in the 3-way market. The reason is that your bet is hedged against a draw.
FULL TIME RESULTS + TOTAL GOALS OVER/UNDER
This is a combined probability whereby two outcomes have to come true in a single match for you to win your bet. For instance in our example, you can bet that Roma wins and the total number of goals in the match will be at least 2. This will give you odds of 2.8.
This market therefore has higher odds but the difficulty is higher as well. It is a rule of thumb that whenever there are more than one outcomes that need to come true before winning a bet, the harder is it to win since the probability I that bet decreases as the number of outcomes increase.
HALF TIME/FULL TIME RESULTS
In the halftime full time results betting market, you predict the general order of outcomes in a match, that is by first half and full time. You can predict for instance that Home team wins first half and 1 wins again in second half.
This will be denoted as 1/1. This actually means Home team scored more goals than away team in first half and did the same in second half.
If Home team wins in first half but no goal is scored in second half, Home team will be the overall winner of the match. However if you predicted a 1/1, you will lose your bet. This is because the outcome will be denoted as 1/X since Home team won the first half but did not win the second half; they drew by not scoring in the second half.
This market is a bit confusing but is potentially very profitable.
TOTAL GOALS EXACTLY
In this market you predict the total number of goals to be scored in a match by both teams. Unlike the under and over market, here you give exact number of goals. If it is 3 goals you predict, you bet on 3. There is nothing like 2.5 or 3.5.
Similar to correct score, this is a highly risky market to bet on. It is however slightly less risky than the correct score market.
The odd and even market needs you to predict the type of integer the total number of goals scored in a match. Any outcome is always odd or even. Even numbers are wholly divisible by 2 while odd numbers are not. It is worthy to note that a null outcome is considered even, the reason even outcomes seem to be more common than odd outcomes.
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